VTA continuously cuts back on investment in Los Gatos, first by cutting two routes in 2020, then by downgrading weekend service in 2023, due to persistently low ridership. But VTA still has an outsized positive impact in the community — and latent demand exists that can ease this transit death spiral of low ridership and reduced returns.
In collaboration with the Traffic Safety Ad-Hoc of the Los Gatos Youth Commission, Los Gatos Policy Research ran a federally prescribed cost-benefit analysis to determine the real impact of Route 27. Even the current network returns $1.71 in economic benefits for the Town for every $1 spent over 20 years. A redesigned network is projected to do meaningfully better.
Public transit gets cut whenever ridership numbers drop, and ridership numbers drop whenever public transit gets cut — a feedback loop that results in the consistently worsening service visible throughout town. Improved service can mitigate several Town problems.
Public transit improvements serve unlicensed youth and seniors, boosting independence and mental health by enabling them to reach academic activities or social events without a ride. A lack of quality transit damages extracurricular programs and creates a less well-connected community.
Quality public transit can also address the Town’s traffic concerns. Already, Route 27 sees 1,278 boardings a day (VTA Open Data), meaning hundreds of cars off the roads. An improved route, focused on schools, will take cars out of dangerous, gridlocked drop-off situations. Meanwhile, these driving reductions significantly cut back damaging CO2 emissions.
We ran the numbers to create a revived Route 27 that can better serve vulnerable communities. Several changes will produce quantifiable benefits for Town residents, including through reduced travel time, increased accessibility, and much more.
Public transit thrives where large groups of people congregate at specific, regular, and predictable times. Downtown areas and shopping centers often see large numbers of people, but at different times of day. Workplaces are spread throughout Los Gatos, making coverage more difficult. Furthermore, with the advent of online shopping, the popularization of remote work, and the ability to get takeout delivered straight to your door, those with the means often avoid travel altogether.
But schools see hundreds or even thousands of unlicensed individuals with limited independent travel options arriving and leaving in the same 10-minute timeframe, something unlikely to be substantially reduced by the Internet. Therefore, schools are often a major target for transit agencies looking for the consistent ridership off which to build a program. All the agency must do is market themselves to students and ensure timely arrivals for drop-off and pickup.
VTA currently does neither of these things. About half of Union and LGHS students who are driven to school are unaware of the existence of the local bus route, and the bus route often arrives half an hour from school start and end times. Simple, low-cost or free reforms at schools can therefore create large increases in convenience for students, resulting in large long-term ridership gains. This is the idea behind Los Gatos Policy Research reforms.
This analysis should help inform future public transit decisions in Los Gatos by creating software that can accurately characterize current and future transit situations, allowing us to maximize our existing resources. It also produces several low cost next steps for reversing the feedback loop of low ridership.
All cost-benefit methodologies in this analysis are sourced from the federal government, including FTA guidelines and USDOT BCA Guidance 2024. It intentionally uses a conservative scope, excluding several small benefit categories from the baseline scenario. The $1.71 BCR holds even without those items.
Three pieces of work, each with the data and methodology open for inspection.
The methodology behind the $1.71-per-$1 figure, including 8 federally recognized benefit categories, and data on how VTA stacks up against other California operators.
Open the full analysis
LiveThree asks for VTA: free bus passes for LGHS students & staff, a bell-aligned AM/PM timetable, and real signage at school adjacent stops.
Open the route-redesign work
ReferenceEvery acronym and agency cited in this project, with links to primary sources.
Browse the glossary
Glossary built in. Acronyms in the analysis page are underlined. Hover or tap for a one-line definition. Click to jump to the full glossary entry at the bottom of the page.
Jump to glossaryThe full cost-benefit dashboard has every number, every chart, and every source. The glossary at the bottom defines every term used.