LG Los Gatos Think Tank
In progress, finalizing public dashboard

Route redesign, coming together.

The interactive route-redesign tool, corridor maps, candidate stops, headway scheduling, and ridership projections, is being finalized. The numbers it depends on are already published in the cost-benefit analysis. This page explains what is in it and what comes next.

Read the analysis now Back to project home
Phase B results, already computed

What the optimization found

The Clarke-Wright routing algorithm and FTA Circular 9040.1G stop spacing standard have already been run. These numbers are from the pipeline output. The public-facing dashboard to present them is what remains.

13
New candidate stops identified on Route 27 corridor
117
Total stops in optimized network (existing + new)
1.71
BCR, Route 27 current network (20-yr, 3.5% discount)
~264K
Current annual boardings, Route 27
~317K
Projected annual boardings, optimized Route 27 (+20%)
<1.0
BCR, Route 76 restoration scenario — not yet sufficient to recommend
Clarke-Wright savings algorithm FTA Circular 9040.1G spacing Mohring (1972) headway formula BCR per stop, OMB A-94 3.5%, 20 yr GTFS output, 8 files Public corridor map Ridership projection display

What will be on this page

Estimated availability: the pipeline already generates the underlying data. What remains is the public-facing version readable without a transit-planning background. Contact elijah.asheghian@icloud.com to say what would be most useful to see first.
01

Redesigned Route 27 corridor

The optimized Route 27 spine with 13 new candidate stops placed by the model in neighborhoods that currently have no service. Each stop has a benefit-cost ratio under FTA Circular 9040.1G spacing rules. The highest-ranked are mapped first.

02

Schedule and headways

Frequency by time-of-day window using the Mohring (1972) wait-time formula, calibrated to the demand model. Includes peak and off-peak headways and the school-trip windows that drive Route 76 demand at LGHS.

03

Ridership projections

Daily boardings by route, derived from the Transit Demand Index (population density, zero-vehicle households, transit commute share, income, age dependence, and employment) plus the student survey for school trips.

04

Route 76 restoration scenario

The standalone case for restoring service to the 95033 mountain communities that lost their only transit link in 2010. Capital, operating cost, expected boardings, and the BCR comparison against doing nothing.

Route 76, the case for restoration

Route 76 ran from downtown Los Gatos to Summit Road in the 95033 zip code, serving roughly 8,000 mountain-community residents including students at LGHS. It was discontinued in June 2010. The bus stop signs are still standing.

The cost-benefit model has already evaluated the restoration scenario. The numbers below are from Phase A3 of the analysis.

$900K
Capital investment to restore service
$128K/yr
Annual operating cost
$113K/yr
Net cost (operating minus fare revenue)
$17.76
Cost per boarding
~40/day
Estimated boardings on school days
8
Stops to rehabilitate
Note on cost per boarding: $17.76 per boarding is high relative to Route 27 ($9.77), but comparable to rural transit nationally (NTD peer average: $10 to $18). The mountain corridor has low density and long distances. The BCR evaluation under Phase A3 will determine whether social benefits justify the net cost. See BCR in the glossary.

Methods applied in Phase B

Method What it does Standard
Clarke-Wright Builds efficient route sequences by merging trip pairs wherever the distance saving is positive. Applied to the 16-district origin-destination matrix. TCRP Report 19
FTA 9040.1G spacing Minimum and maximum stop spacing rules: quarter-mile in urban zones (D1 to D5, D7), half-mile in suburban zones. Candidate stops that violate spacing are rejected. FTA Circular 9040.1G, now superseded by 9040.1H
Mohring headways Derives optimal frequency from ridership demand. Higher demand justifies shorter headways because the wait-time cost is shared among more passengers. Mohring (1972), Transport Economics
Stop BCR Each new candidate stop is evaluated on a 20-year benefit-cost ratio using marginal walkshed population, estimated new boardings, and the USDOT BCA 2024 value per boarding. USDOT BCA Guidance 2024, OMB Circular A-94
School constraints Union Middle School (14:25 dismissal) and Dartmouth Middle School (15:55 dismissal) are hard constraints. The schedule must deliver a trip within 10 minutes of each dismissal window. Student survey diversion rate, GTFS schedule
GTFS output The pipeline writes a valid GTFS feed for the optimized network: stops.txt, trips.txt, stop_times.txt, routes.txt, calendar.txt, shapes.txt, agency.txt, feed_info.txt. GTFS Schedule Reference v2.0

Model corrections applied

Four corrections from federal guidance updates are applied throughout this analysis. They differ from the defaults often seen in older transit reports.
  • Social Cost of Carbon raised from $56 to $120 per metric ton CO2. Per EPA's 2022 regulatory update, which supersedes the older Interagency Working Group value. This roughly doubles the emission-reduction benefit category.
  • Value of Time split by trip purpose. USDOT BCA Guidance 2024 Table 4: personal trips at $17.80 per hour, employer business trips at $31.90 per hour. Prior analyses used a flat $20.60 per hour for all trips.
  • Induced demand counted as an 8th benefit category. Per TCRP Report 95, roughly 20% of riders are enabled by transit rather than diverted from auto trips. Older analyses miss this group entirely, which understates benefits.
  • FTA Cost Effectiveness Index reported for every scenario. The CEI is the required metric for federal Capital Investment Grant applications. Reporting it allows direct comparison against funded projects elsewhere.
See all corrections in the full analysis

Glossary

Every acronym and key concept used in this project. Hover any underlined term in the page text for a definition. Click to jump here.